Routine (operation) planning

When the uncertainty in the operational environment is high and the situation is dynamic, or when decisions have only short-term impact, one resorts to short-term operational planning. This could happen in part of the tramp shipping segment that requires routine day to day decision making on best method of fleet deployment.

In certain circumstances, it is not practical to schedule ships beyond a single voyage. This happens when there is significant uncertainty in the supply of the product to be shipped, or in the demand for the product in the destination markets. The shipped product may be seasonal, and its demand and supply may be affected by the weather. These factors contribute to the uncertainty in the shipping schedule. The shipper has to assure sufficient shipping capacity in advance of the shipping season, but does not know in advance the exact timing, quantities and destinations of the shipments. The shipper normally does not have return cargoes for the ships, so the ships are hired under contracts of affreightment or spot charters and generally do not return to load for a second voyage.

Based on product availability, demand projections, inventory at the markets and transit times, the shipper builds a shipping plan for the short term and has to decide to assign the planned shipments to the available fleet at minimal cost (MariEMS 2017).